Urban Development
City-scale climate hazards at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C of global warming
This dataset contains estimated average magnitudes and probabilities of extreme-magnitude exceedance for 14 climate hazards, calculated for the 996 cities larger than 500,000 in population, at recent historical level and 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial baseline.
Our calculations are based on global models which have been scaled down to 0.25-degree spatial resolution. This resolution level might be suitable for whole-city applications, but it does not allow differentiation of neighborhoods within cities.
The hazard definitions behind our calculations deal only with temperature, precipitation, and (in the case of the wet-bulb hazard) humidity. They do not consider important factors such as topography, proximity to large bodies of water, presence or health of populations of disease-carrying mosquitos, levels of vulnerability of local communities, or climate-adaptive measures taken by those communities.
These data are based on probabilistic models. They are our best guesses regarding the future values of these indicators, and they should not be interpreted as high-confidence predictions of the future.
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